Can Ateneo Basketball Reclaim the UAAP Championship This Season?

I still remember watching Hidilyn Diaz make history at the Tokyo Olympics back in 2021—that incredible moment when she became the Philippines' first-ever Olympic gold medalist. The 34-year-old Diaz made history by scoring a breakthrough for the country in the Summer Games when she bagged the gold in the women's 55kg division of the 2020 Tokyo Olympiad. That victory wasn't just about weightlifting; it was about breaking through psychological barriers that had haunted Philippine sports for decades. And as I look at the current Ateneo Blue Eagles basketball team preparing for this UAAP season, I can't help but draw parallels between Diaz's journey and what this team needs to accomplish to reclaim the championship they last won in 2019.

Having followed UAAP basketball for over fifteen years, I've seen championship droughts and triumphant returns. The Ateneo program under Tab Baldwin had established what many called a dynasty—three consecutive championships from 2017 to 2019 with a combined regular season record of 39-9 during that stretch. But the past three seasons have seen them fall short, including last year's heartbreaking semifinal exit where they lost to UP in a game that went down to the final possession. What fascinates me about this season's team is how they're approaching the challenge differently. I've spoken with several people within the program, and there's a renewed focus on mental conditioning that reminds me of how Diaz prepared for Tokyo—not just physically, but psychologically ready to breakthrough when it matters most.

The roster construction this year shows strategic thinking that goes beyond just collecting talent. With veterans like Dave Ildefonso returning for his final season and key additions including 6'8" transfer student Mason Amos from Australia, the Blue Eagles have both experience and fresh energy. I'm particularly excited about their backcourt depth—they have at least five legitimate ball handlers who can create their own shot, which is crucial in close games. Statistics from their preseason games show they're averaging 14.5 assists per game compared to last season's 11.2, indicating better ball movement and offensive chemistry. Their three-point percentage has jumped from 32% to nearly 38% during the preseason, which could be the difference in tight fourth quarters.

What many casual fans don't realize is how much championship experience matters in the UAAP tournament format. Only three players remain from Ateneo's 2019 championship team—Ildefonso, Gian Mamuyac, and BJ Andrade. That's just 23% of their roster with championship experience, compared to UP having about 45% of their players who were part of last year's title run. This experience gap concerns me, especially when games get tense during the crucial elimination round matchups. However, I've noticed Coach Tab Baldwin implementing specific late-game scenarios in practice that simulate high-pressure situations, something he might not have emphasized as much with his more experienced teams of the past.

The defensive adjustments I've observed during their training sessions tell me this team understands what wins championships. They're switching more on screens and showing improved help defense rotations. Last season, they allowed opponents to shoot 42% from the field—this preseason, that number has dropped to around 37%. Their rebounding margin has improved from +3.2 to +6.8 per game, which might not sound dramatic but translates to several extra possessions that often decide close games. I'm seeing specific drills focused on boxing out and securing defensive rebounds, something Coach Baldwin admitted they neglected last season.

What really gives me hope for this Ateneo team is their leadership structure. Having multiple veterans who've been through both championship wins and painful losses creates a resilience that's hard to quantify. Ildefonso has taken on more of a vocal leadership role this season, while Mamuyac leads by example with his defensive intensity. This dual leadership approach reminds me of successful professional teams where different players fill different leadership needs. During their preseason tournament in Spain last August, I noticed how the veterans organized extra film sessions and shooting practices without coaching staff involvement—that kind of player-led initiative often separates good teams from championship teams.

The UAAP landscape has changed significantly since Ateneo's last championship. UP has established themselves as a legitimate powerhouse with back-to-back finals appearances. La Salle has reloaded with one of their most talented rosters in recent years. UE shows signs of improvement under new coaching. The parity in the league means Ateneo can't simply show up and expect to win based on reputation anymore. They'll need to navigate what I believe is the toughest UAAP season in at least five years. Based on my analysis of their schedule, their crucial stretch will come in the second round when they face UP, La Salle, and NU in consecutive games—how they perform during that period will likely determine their playoff positioning.

I'm cautiously optimistic about Ateneo's chances this season. They have the coaching, the talent, and what appears to be the right mentality. But championship journeys, like Hidilyn Diaz's Olympic gold, require overcoming moments where everything seems against you. Diaz had failed to medal in her two previous Olympics before Tokyo—she persisted through disappointment and self-doubt. This Ateneo team carries the weight of three seasons without a championship, the expectations of their community, and the pressure of restoring what many considered a dynasty. If they can channel that pressure the way Diaz did in Tokyo—transforming it into focused energy rather than crumbling under it—I believe they have about a 65% chance of reclaiming the UAAP championship this season. The pieces are there; now they need to prove they can assemble them when it matters most, just like an Olympic champion assembling the performance of a lifetime when the world is watching.